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Future Work Force

Understanding what is to come can help you to make good job and career decisions now. Knowing the type of industry and occupation you want to be in over the next ten or twenty years can reduce the barriers and pitfalls you may encounter during your career. Positioning yourself at this point can make you a winner later and not have to worry about dealing with the Venus flytraps.

            The twenty-first century holds an employment picture for the American and Middle Tennessee workforce that amplifies the changing face of the last quarter of the twentieth century. Advancing technology in most every field combined with productivity improvements and the movement offshore of significant number of labor intensive jobs is molding the shape of the economy. The result for new jobs will be towards more highly skilled, highly trained and well-educated employees.  But another characteristic that will mean even more than in the past for the world’s greatest national economy - is creativity.

            Since the end of the recession in November 2001, it was projected that over 2 million jobs were lost including 1.7 million in manufacturing over the next several years, according to government estimates. This was part of the change going on in the American economy. The change has continued with the economy improving and companies increasing spending causing an increase in the number of new jobs starting in 2004. The major recession beginning in 2008 has again resulted in the loss of millions of jobs and has impacted employment in a way not anticipated.

            The number and types of jobs has confounded many economists. But certain trends are obvious and necessary for an industrialized economy to continue to expand.

            Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, said one of the main reasons for the changing economy is the increase in productivity. This means companies are becoming more efficient. It also means, in the short run at least, that employers need less than expected employees. In theory, it also means products and services are cheaper. In time, the productivity increase will reach its limits. The resulting efficiency should mean a stronger economy and, hopefully, even more jobs.

            To keep pace with a growing global perspective of management and keener competition, many companies are seeking cheaper labor. As a result, they are moving many of their operations offshore. In the past century this usually meant only manufacturing. Unfortunately, now it is beginning to mean some service jobs. This offshore trend will probably continue for service jobs that are more assembly-line like.

             What does this mean to those wanting to prepare for the future of the American workforce?

            Greenspan said that the future American worker needs to be better trained and educated to meet the demand. Though simple in explanation, he is right.

            The U.S. economy’s greatest advantage is the ingenuity and innovation of its workforce. By developing new products, services, concepts, styles and services the nation has excelled in its competition with the rest of the world. It has also given its population an unprecedented standard of living.

            Workers and employees that contribute to this approach will be in high demand now and in the future. In their jobs these people will work more with ideas and better ways of doing things.

            A book, The Rise of the Creative Class, says the creative workers of America make up only about 30 percent of the workforce but account for 50 percent of wages. In the future, their income along with demand for their expertise will increase even more compared to the rest of the workforce.

            People that position themselves to take advantage of the trend toward more innovation and ingenuity will have greater job prospects in the twenty-first century and fewer opportunity barriers.

            Jobs that require design, education, developing, advertising, financing, analyzing, reviewing, recommending, improving or marketing should be in demand. But, because of the nature of some industries, the jobs that comprise them will always be in demand.

            So if you are looking at your long-term job prospects, take a close look at what your abilities and skill level offers to the employer. If you do not have the abilities in demand, take a look at gaining the skills though continued education and training. Not having them will present long-term career barriers. Try and do it while you are working. Don’t wait until you no longer have a job, but if you are not employed – it is never too late to learn.

            If you are someone that is not skilled in the higher demand occupations and don’t have the aptitude for the jobs, consider positioning yourself in one of the growth industries that can use your skills. These industries will generally offer greater potential over time and greater opportunities for all occupations used in their operations.

            The United States Department of Labor estimates that the total number of employees should increase in the next 10 years by nearly 19 million or 13 percent. If correct, since this did mot take in consideration the major job losses of the 2008 recession, this will bring the number of working Americans to about 165 million.  Distribution of the jobs will not be eventually distributed. According to the government, changes in consumer demand, technology and other factors will contribute to the continually changing employment structure in the U.S. economy.

            Some of the alterations will be because of changing demographics. The aging U.S. population and longer life expectancies will affect health care and social assistance. More women moving into the workforce will place more demand on childcare services, for instance.

            This employment section in Civic Scope will help outline what specific industries and occupations will be in demand and thus help you in positioning for the future.

 

INDUSTRY GROWTH AND TOMORROW’S JOBS

 

            The continuing shift from a goods-producing economy to a service-providing economy is expected to impact employment distribution significantly. Of the approximately 18.9 million new waged and salaried jobs during the next 10 years, 18.7 million are expected to be in the service area. Not all industries in the service sector will grow at the same rate. Some will grow significantly faster.

            The following is a breakdown projected by the Department of Labor in what it defines as nine supersectors. Eight of the sectors are found in the service arena, but only one is found in goods-producing. These are followed by three other supersectors in the goods-producing arena, all of which are expected to have a loss in employment.                                                                     

WHERE THE JOB GROWTH WILL BE FOUND

            Growth in the Service Supersectors

            Education and Health Services

            This supersector is expected to be the fastest growing industrial group at 30.6 percent. More than three out of every 10 new positions is expected to be in either health care and assistance or private educational services.

            The sector including hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities, and individual and family services will expand by 30.3 percent or 4.3 million jobs.

            Private educational services will grow by 32.5 percent and add 898,000 new jobs. Rising student enrollment will increase demand for education.

            Professional and Business Services

            This supersector includes some of the most rapidly growing industries in the nation and will grow by 27.5 percent and add more than 4.5 million jobs.

            The fastest growing industry in this sector will be employment services, which is expected to expand by 45.5 percent and will contribute almost two-thirds of all the new positions in administrative and support, waste management and remediation services.

            Growth in the professional, scientific and technical service employment is projected to increase by 28.4 percent and add 1.9 million jobs. Employment in computer systems design and related services should increase by 39.5 percent or nearly one-quarter of all new jobs in the sector.

            Employment in professional, scientific and technical services is expected to grow by 39.5 percent and add nearly one-quarter of all new positions in professional, scientific and technical services.

            Management, scientific and technical consulting services will grow significantly at 60.5 percent influenced by more use of technology, computer software and the growing complexity and specialization in business.

            Management in companies and enterprises are in line to grow by 10.6 percent and add 182,000 positions.

            Leisure and Hospitality

            In this sector growth is expected to increase by 17.7 percent.

            Within the sector, arts, entertainment and recreation is on for a growth of 25 percent or 460,000 new jobs. Most of the increase will be due to amusement, gambling and recreation.

            Part of the growth will be due to an increase in income, leisure time and an increase in awareness of the importance of physical fitness.

            Accommodation and food services is projected to expand by 16.5 percent and add 1.8 million jobs. Reflecting the increase in population and dual-income families, growth will be concentrated in food services and drinking establishments.

            Information

            Employment in the information supersector is expected to grow by 11.6 percent or 364,000 jobs.

            Some of the fast growing computer-related industries are included here such as software publishers projected for 67.7 percent; internet publishing and broadcasting to increase by 43.5 percent; and Internet service providers, Web search portals and data processing services estimated to grow by 27.8 percent.

            In addition, this supersector includes telecommunications, broadcasting, newspaper, periodical, and book and directory publishers.

            The rising demand for residential and business landline and wireless services, cable service, high speed Internet connections, and software will also fuel job growth.

            Trade, Transportation and Utilities

            In this supersector growth is expected to be at 10.3 percent.

            Transportation and warehousing is projected to increase by 11.9 percent or 506,000 jobs.

            The warehousing and storage sector is projected to grow at 24.8 percent or 138,000 jobs.

            Truck transportation will add 129,000 new jobs or 9.6 percent.

            One of the industries where employment expected to decline is rail.

            Retail trade growth is expected to increase by 11 percent or 1.7 million as the overall population grows along with consumer demand.

            Wholesale trade jobs are projected to a little slower at 8.4 percent or about 400,000 jobs.

            Employment in utilities is expected to be mixed with an overall loss of jobs at 1.3 percent. Because of the labor intensiveness of water treatment and sewage disposal employment is inline to increase by 21 percent. However, employment in electric power generation, transmission and distribution and natural gas distribution is projected to decrease due to improved technology and worker productivity.

            Financial Activities

            In this supersector employment is projected to grow by 10.5 percent.

            Real estate will be the fastest growing industry within financial activities increasing by 32.1 percent.

            For instance, as the population expands the demand for housing will go up stimulating the need for rental and leasing with the result of increasing jobs by 16.9 percent or 353,000 jobs.

            Finance and insurance is projected to increase by 496,000 jobs or 8.3 percent.

            Securities, commodity contracts and other financial investments activities are inline to expand by 15.8 percent. The demand for retirement plans will impact this area.

            Employment in credit intermediation and related services such as banks will increase by 5.4 percent.

            Insurance carriers and related activities are expected to grow by 9.5 percent or 215,000 positions.

            The number of jobs within agencies, brokerages and other related activities is projected to increase by 19.4 percent.

            Government

            Government employment is expected to increase by10 percent to 23.8 million positions. This includes public education and public hospitals. Most of the growth will be in local and state government services partly because of responsibilities being shifted away from the Federal government.

            Local government educational services are projected to grow by 10 percent or 783,000 positions.

            State government educational services are expected to grow by 19.6 percent or 422,000 jobs.

            As many services are contracted out or shifted to local and state governments, the Federal government will show only a small increase of 1.6 percent. This includes the Postal Service.

            Other Special Services

            This is a very mixed bag of sectors that will increase employment by 14 percent.

            More than one out of every four jobs here will be in religious organizations projected to have an increase of 11.9 percent.

            Another, automotive repair and maintenance will grow the fastest at 30.7 percent.

            Personal care services are expected to increase by 19.5 percent.

            Construction

            The only supersector in good-producing projected to have an increase in employment during the next 10 years is construction. It is expected to increase by 11.4 percent to 7.8 million jobs. This is because of the growing demand for housing, road, bridge and tunnel construction

           

WHERE JOB LOSSES WILL OCCUR

            Losses in the Good-Producing Supersectors

            Manufacturing

            Employment in this supersector will vary by industry with some actually increasing. However, overall employment will decline by 5.4 percent or 777,000 jobs.

   Some exceptions include transportation equipment manufacturing along with pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing. They will increase by 95,000 and 76,000 positions, respectively.

            However, productivity improvements and international competition will bring down total employment. For instance, jobs in textile mills and apparel are expected to decline by 119,000 and 170,000, respectively.

            Surprisingly, employment in computer and electronic product manufacturing is also expected to decline by 94,000.

            Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

            Overall the supersector is projected to decline by 5.2 percent.

            One sector expected to resist the decline is support activities for agriculture and forestry. This includes farm labor contractors and farm management services, which is expected to grow by 18.2 percent or 19,000 positions.

            Mining, Oil and Gas

            Employment in mining in this supersector is projected to decline by 8.8 percent or 46,000 jobs.

            Jobs in coal mining and metal ore mining are expected to decrease by 23.3 percent and 29.3 percent, respectively.

            Employment in oil and gas extraction is projected to decrease by 13.1 percent.

            Decreases are due in part to technology improvements, international competition, depletion, restricted access to Federal lands and strict environmental regulations requiring cleaner burning fuels.